Weblog nr 19
April 18, 2006
The situation in Chad, Sudan's neighbor, is getting out of control. Early April the Chadian army launched an offensive against Chadian rebels who had been active in the Eastern part of Chad. The offensive failed. The rebels defeated the army and launched a counter offensive that brought them close to the outskirts of the capital, N'Djamena, in the far West of Chad, at the border with Nigeria.
These rebels had good contacts in West Darfur. The border between Cad and Sudan is long and beyond control. The rebel movements in Darfur, from their side, are receiving support from forces in Chad. Such support does consist of weapons as well as combatants, often tribally organized. The government of Chad had accused the Sudanese government of directly supporting the Chadian rebels, while the Sudanese government mutatis mutandis had said the same. There is no proof, but both accusations deserve to be taken seriously.
However, this does not mean that the conflicts in either of the two countries are the result of foreign intervention. Support from outside may have fed the conflicts, but in both Darfur as well as in Chad the root causes are domestic. Rebel movements in Chad exist since many years. As a matter of fact the present Chadian leadership came to power through a military coup, about fifteen years ago, that was launched from Sudan. It had its basis in the mountainous area Jebel Moon, to the North of the capital of Western Darfur, El Geneina, close to the border with Chad. The military government was contested throughout the ninety nineties. The conflicts were partly tribal - the Zaghawa, living in both Chad and Darfur, played an important role -, partly regional, partly economic, partly purely political: any group that has grasped power by force and is able to keep the power for a while gets contested and will lose domestic support to the benefit of others. Not only in democratic societies, but also in societies without democratic means to change power, the ruling power constellation has a limited life span. After a while its authority gets eroded, the power base weakens, the supporting constituency will shrink, it becomes vulnerable for attacks and a new leadership contest will arise.
I remember the thundering applause for Kofi Annan at last year's summit of the African Union in Addis Ababa, when he criticized African leaders who were trying to use their constitutional powers to change the constitution in order to ensure a third term in office. The applause came from the African politicians and civil servants in his audience. It sounded like a promise: the beginning of a new period of good governance and democratic leadership. One year later we witness how President Obasanjo of Nigeria, President Museveni of Uganda and President Deby of Chad have made efforts in this direction. To this end in Chad new elections have been scheduled next month. It is amazing how new leaders, having made a good start with better governance during their first term in office, tend to make the same mistake as their autocratic predecessors. After having ruled their country for a number of years political leaders are seduced by their own power to cling to the might. It is also amazing how Western governments, despite sermons about good governance, often back such inclinations, fearing that the alternative would harm their interests. However, it is not amazing that rulers, who seem to be successful in this respect, turn out to have won a Pyrrhus victory. Often this is the beginning of the end of their rule. As a rule such an end does not come smoothly, but with a bang.
This may very well be the case in Chad. There are various rebel movements with different interests, different tribal affiliations and with regional backgrounds. One of them is the Front Uni pour le Changement et la Democratie (FUC), led by Mahamat Nour Abdelkrim, a Tama. Another one is the Rassemblement des Forces Democratiques (RaFD), getting its support in particular from the Zaghawa. A third is the Socle pour le Changement et l'Unite Democratique (SCUD), which started in Eastern Chad. It received the support from quite a few defectors from the Deby regime and got a base in Darfur as well. The various movements are not yet united and compete with each other. But together they form a serious challenge to the present regime.
President Deby has responded by putting the blame on Khartoum. He has cut diplomatic relations with Sudan. The Tripoli Agreement, signed by Presidents Deby and Bashir in February, during a Summit meeting attended by Presidents Sassou-Nguesso of Congo, Blaise Compare of Bourkina Fasso, Bozize of the Central African Republic and Kaddafi of Libya, together with AU Chairperson Konare, does not seem to function at all. The African Union does not seem to have enough influence to turn the tide. President Deby has also decided to nullify an international agreement regarding the use of oil revenue for poverty reduction. He has threatened to cut the oil exports supplies. A couple of years ago this agreement, reached under the auspices of the World Bank, was heralded as an innovation in international development cooperation. However, Deby wants the money to uphold his power base and to finance his army. The innovation, meant to help one of the poorest countries in Africa to meet the Millennium Development Goals, alleviate poverty and avoid pillaging of the region where the oil has been found, has collapsed.
Poor Chad. Poor Chadians. Poor people, who have sought refuge in Chad. Deby had threatened to retaliate against Khartoum by expelling about 200.000 refugees who during the Darfur slaughter campaign of 2003 had fled across the border. It is an inhuman threat. Forcing refugees, who are victims of previous conflicts, to flee again in the course of a conflict which is not of their making, would result in great additional suffering. The UN mission in Sudan, together with the UN agencies, has started preparing an emergency program to assist possible new refugees. Under pressure of the international community Deby has withdrawn the threat. However, increased violence in Chad may result in massive new displacements.
It does not have to get this far. But here again, like with regard to so many countries of Africa, the international community will have to apply wisdom, determination and a concerted approach in order to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and to help a collapsing state to get back on its feet. Thereafter the Chadians themselves, like the Sudanese, will have to decide how they together can turn a nearly failing state into a surviving nation and a sustainable society.
These rebels had good contacts in West Darfur. The border between Cad and Sudan is long and beyond control. The rebel movements in Darfur, from their side, are receiving support from forces in Chad. Such support does consist of weapons as well as combatants, often tribally organized. The government of Chad had accused the Sudanese government of directly supporting the Chadian rebels, while the Sudanese government mutatis mutandis had said the same. There is no proof, but both accusations deserve to be taken seriously.
However, this does not mean that the conflicts in either of the two countries are the result of foreign intervention. Support from outside may have fed the conflicts, but in both Darfur as well as in Chad the root causes are domestic. Rebel movements in Chad exist since many years. As a matter of fact the present Chadian leadership came to power through a military coup, about fifteen years ago, that was launched from Sudan. It had its basis in the mountainous area Jebel Moon, to the North of the capital of Western Darfur, El Geneina, close to the border with Chad. The military government was contested throughout the ninety nineties. The conflicts were partly tribal - the Zaghawa, living in both Chad and Darfur, played an important role -, partly regional, partly economic, partly purely political: any group that has grasped power by force and is able to keep the power for a while gets contested and will lose domestic support to the benefit of others. Not only in democratic societies, but also in societies without democratic means to change power, the ruling power constellation has a limited life span. After a while its authority gets eroded, the power base weakens, the supporting constituency will shrink, it becomes vulnerable for attacks and a new leadership contest will arise.
I remember the thundering applause for Kofi Annan at last year's summit of the African Union in Addis Ababa, when he criticized African leaders who were trying to use their constitutional powers to change the constitution in order to ensure a third term in office. The applause came from the African politicians and civil servants in his audience. It sounded like a promise: the beginning of a new period of good governance and democratic leadership. One year later we witness how President Obasanjo of Nigeria, President Museveni of Uganda and President Deby of Chad have made efforts in this direction. To this end in Chad new elections have been scheduled next month. It is amazing how new leaders, having made a good start with better governance during their first term in office, tend to make the same mistake as their autocratic predecessors. After having ruled their country for a number of years political leaders are seduced by their own power to cling to the might. It is also amazing how Western governments, despite sermons about good governance, often back such inclinations, fearing that the alternative would harm their interests. However, it is not amazing that rulers, who seem to be successful in this respect, turn out to have won a Pyrrhus victory. Often this is the beginning of the end of their rule. As a rule such an end does not come smoothly, but with a bang.
This may very well be the case in Chad. There are various rebel movements with different interests, different tribal affiliations and with regional backgrounds. One of them is the Front Uni pour le Changement et la Democratie (FUC), led by Mahamat Nour Abdelkrim, a Tama. Another one is the Rassemblement des Forces Democratiques (RaFD), getting its support in particular from the Zaghawa. A third is the Socle pour le Changement et l'Unite Democratique (SCUD), which started in Eastern Chad. It received the support from quite a few defectors from the Deby regime and got a base in Darfur as well. The various movements are not yet united and compete with each other. But together they form a serious challenge to the present regime.
President Deby has responded by putting the blame on Khartoum. He has cut diplomatic relations with Sudan. The Tripoli Agreement, signed by Presidents Deby and Bashir in February, during a Summit meeting attended by Presidents Sassou-Nguesso of Congo, Blaise Compare of Bourkina Fasso, Bozize of the Central African Republic and Kaddafi of Libya, together with AU Chairperson Konare, does not seem to function at all. The African Union does not seem to have enough influence to turn the tide. President Deby has also decided to nullify an international agreement regarding the use of oil revenue for poverty reduction. He has threatened to cut the oil exports supplies. A couple of years ago this agreement, reached under the auspices of the World Bank, was heralded as an innovation in international development cooperation. However, Deby wants the money to uphold his power base and to finance his army. The innovation, meant to help one of the poorest countries in Africa to meet the Millennium Development Goals, alleviate poverty and avoid pillaging of the region where the oil has been found, has collapsed.
Poor Chad. Poor Chadians. Poor people, who have sought refuge in Chad. Deby had threatened to retaliate against Khartoum by expelling about 200.000 refugees who during the Darfur slaughter campaign of 2003 had fled across the border. It is an inhuman threat. Forcing refugees, who are victims of previous conflicts, to flee again in the course of a conflict which is not of their making, would result in great additional suffering. The UN mission in Sudan, together with the UN agencies, has started preparing an emergency program to assist possible new refugees. Under pressure of the international community Deby has withdrawn the threat. However, increased violence in Chad may result in massive new displacements.
It does not have to get this far. But here again, like with regard to so many countries of Africa, the international community will have to apply wisdom, determination and a concerted approach in order to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and to help a collapsing state to get back on its feet. Thereafter the Chadians themselves, like the Sudanese, will have to decide how they together can turn a nearly failing state into a surviving nation and a sustainable society.