Weblog nr 13
February 18, 2006
Last week I went to Abuja for the fourth time during this seventh round of the Darfur peace talks. A fortnight earlier I had left the talks quite disappointed (see weblog nr 9)
because the parties seemed to have lost their sense of urgency. In the meantime the situation on the ground has worsened. The tension between Sudan and Chad has intensified. Armed hostilities between the two countries are a serious option. Both governments accuse each other about support to their mutual domestic rebel movements, operating across the border. Any result from the talks in Abuja, aiming at a solution of the civil war within Sudan, can be set aside by the outbreak of an international conflict. A war between Sudan and Chad would have disastrous consequences for the refugees and displaced people in the two countries.
The threat is particularly manifest in El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur, close to the border with Chad. It is no longer safe for UN personnel and humanitarian workers outside the town. Militia, at least four different Sudanese rebel movements and two Chadian movements, Janjaweed, bandits, the Sudanese police, its army and also elements of the Chadian army carry weapons, threaten each other as well as civilians, make and break alliances, plunder convoys and compounds and receive arms from unknown sources, by air as well as across the border. The African Union peace force in this region is not strong enough to act and has become a target itself. Much relief assistance had to be postponed. Recently I had to withdraw half of our staff. They could not work anymore and their security could not be guaranteed. We have updated our evacuation plans and decided to build bunkers in order to protect the remaining staff.
In the Jebel Mara, a mountainous area to the east of Nyala and a stronghold of SLA, some new attacks by militia supported by government troops have taken place. It was no longer safe for the humanitarian workers in the area. We had to withdraw them by road, under the protection of the AU. The second group had to be airlifted by helicopter, because the rebels did not allow the AU to come in any more. The rescue operation took place under difficult circumstances. The helicopter crashed. One person died, the others were rescued. We were very grateful that the others survived, thanks to the heroic efforts of some crew and security staff. However, it was a sad day. If the cease fire would have been respected and also other agreements would have been kept, the death of a young girl, working to help the victims of the war, could have been avoided.
To the South of Nyala the SLA has occupied the town Gereida. A year ago cease fire talks had resulted in the agreement to make this a demilitarized area, to be monitored by the African Union. The occupation did not take place by force, but by declaration. During a couple of months SLA combatants had entered the town in small groups, without uniform. When they felt strong enough they declared the town liberated again. The AU was not forceful enough to counter this violation of the cease fire agreement. Because the Joint Committee that should address violations does not seem to meet anymore, the new status quo remains unchallenged.
The Government has protested, of course. However, the army is violating the cease fire also. Two days ago the army, together with the militia, attacked villages around Sheria (in the area between Nyala and El Fashr). The SLA shot a helicopter gunship of the army. The use of these gun-ships itself is a clear violation of the agreements and also of Security Council Resolutions.
The situation in Sheria itself is rather desperate, after a series of attacks and counter-attacks. Here too, despite agreements concerning unhindered access for humanitarian workers, relief assistance can not be given. It is too dangerous.
Photo: Paula Souverijn-Eisenberg (c)
All this implies that the situation in Darfur is getting more and more out of control. In Abuja. I tried to emphasize that the first priority in the peace talks should be to reach a new cease fire agreement, which could not be interpreted differently by the various parties and which should be fully respected. Violations should no longer go unnoticed, but addressed and sanctioned. In my view this requires a cease fire regime with provisions which can be imposed on the parties. In Abuja I was flabbergasted by the talks: parties were negotiating with each other the right to decide themselves whether or not a specific action constitutes a violation and whether or not to recommend punitive action. This will lead nowhere. The only way to guarantee stability is an international force that can prevent attacks and will sanction violations. That the AU is not in a position to do so is not its fault. The AU has to work with a cease fire agreement which is flawed in many respects. Moreover, the AU is lacking the resources to act timely and effectively.
I wonder to which extent the negotiating parties in Abuja represent the people of Darfur. They are discussing issues which are not so relevant for the well-being of the Darfurians. They do not seem to care much for the fate of the victims, whether living in the camps or in villages and towns under threat. I also wonder to which extent the negotiators represent themselves. The Government delegation has not met the high expectations about a more forthcoming stance, now that the SPLM has become a coalition partner of the NCP. SPLM leaders in Juba and Khartoum told me that they can only play a serious role in Abuja after having reached a common position with the NCP. I am afraid that this will take months. From their rebel leaders in Abuja are not fully representative for their movements either. They seem to lose control over their commanders in the field. Some continue betting on two horses: fighting and talking. Others get involved in the power struggle in Chad, receiving weapons from abroad and starting new alliances.
Negotiators in Abuja had understood that the mood in the Security Council is changing. There is serious talk about a transition from a force under the auspices of the AU to a UN force. This may give a boost to the negotiations in Abuja. This is one stray of hope.
There is a second reason for hope. After Abuja I went to Darfur again to speak with rebel commanders in the field. There I became a bit more optimistic. Many commanders and their troops want peace. They are losing confidence in those leaders whom they accuse of derailing the peace talks. They do not want to make a choice between Abdul Wahid and Minnie Minawi, but they also refuse to become a third party within the SLM. They are afraid that alliances with Chadian forces are a prelude to new hostilities. They also fear indiscriminate pre-emptive attacks by the Sudanese army, which will force them to fight again. They fear that this would be the end of Abuja. If forces within the rebel movements, active on the ground, would be able to get this message heard, the peace talks might become successful, in the end.
Photo: Marianne Nolte (c)
because the parties seemed to have lost their sense of urgency. In the meantime the situation on the ground has worsened. The tension between Sudan and Chad has intensified. Armed hostilities between the two countries are a serious option. Both governments accuse each other about support to their mutual domestic rebel movements, operating across the border. Any result from the talks in Abuja, aiming at a solution of the civil war within Sudan, can be set aside by the outbreak of an international conflict. A war between Sudan and Chad would have disastrous consequences for the refugees and displaced people in the two countries.
The threat is particularly manifest in El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur, close to the border with Chad. It is no longer safe for UN personnel and humanitarian workers outside the town. Militia, at least four different Sudanese rebel movements and two Chadian movements, Janjaweed, bandits, the Sudanese police, its army and also elements of the Chadian army carry weapons, threaten each other as well as civilians, make and break alliances, plunder convoys and compounds and receive arms from unknown sources, by air as well as across the border. The African Union peace force in this region is not strong enough to act and has become a target itself. Much relief assistance had to be postponed. Recently I had to withdraw half of our staff. They could not work anymore and their security could not be guaranteed. We have updated our evacuation plans and decided to build bunkers in order to protect the remaining staff.
In the Jebel Mara, a mountainous area to the east of Nyala and a stronghold of SLA, some new attacks by militia supported by government troops have taken place. It was no longer safe for the humanitarian workers in the area. We had to withdraw them by road, under the protection of the AU. The second group had to be airlifted by helicopter, because the rebels did not allow the AU to come in any more. The rescue operation took place under difficult circumstances. The helicopter crashed. One person died, the others were rescued. We were very grateful that the others survived, thanks to the heroic efforts of some crew and security staff. However, it was a sad day. If the cease fire would have been respected and also other agreements would have been kept, the death of a young girl, working to help the victims of the war, could have been avoided.
To the South of Nyala the SLA has occupied the town Gereida. A year ago cease fire talks had resulted in the agreement to make this a demilitarized area, to be monitored by the African Union. The occupation did not take place by force, but by declaration. During a couple of months SLA combatants had entered the town in small groups, without uniform. When they felt strong enough they declared the town liberated again. The AU was not forceful enough to counter this violation of the cease fire agreement. Because the Joint Committee that should address violations does not seem to meet anymore, the new status quo remains unchallenged.
The Government has protested, of course. However, the army is violating the cease fire also. Two days ago the army, together with the militia, attacked villages around Sheria (in the area between Nyala and El Fashr). The SLA shot a helicopter gunship of the army. The use of these gun-ships itself is a clear violation of the agreements and also of Security Council Resolutions.
The situation in Sheria itself is rather desperate, after a series of attacks and counter-attacks. Here too, despite agreements concerning unhindered access for humanitarian workers, relief assistance can not be given. It is too dangerous.
A family in an IDP settlement outside the AMIS compound in Sheria.
Photo: Paula Souverijn-Eisenberg (c)
All this implies that the situation in Darfur is getting more and more out of control. In Abuja. I tried to emphasize that the first priority in the peace talks should be to reach a new cease fire agreement, which could not be interpreted differently by the various parties and which should be fully respected. Violations should no longer go unnoticed, but addressed and sanctioned. In my view this requires a cease fire regime with provisions which can be imposed on the parties. In Abuja I was flabbergasted by the talks: parties were negotiating with each other the right to decide themselves whether or not a specific action constitutes a violation and whether or not to recommend punitive action. This will lead nowhere. The only way to guarantee stability is an international force that can prevent attacks and will sanction violations. That the AU is not in a position to do so is not its fault. The AU has to work with a cease fire agreement which is flawed in many respects. Moreover, the AU is lacking the resources to act timely and effectively.
I wonder to which extent the negotiating parties in Abuja represent the people of Darfur. They are discussing issues which are not so relevant for the well-being of the Darfurians. They do not seem to care much for the fate of the victims, whether living in the camps or in villages and towns under threat. I also wonder to which extent the negotiators represent themselves. The Government delegation has not met the high expectations about a more forthcoming stance, now that the SPLM has become a coalition partner of the NCP. SPLM leaders in Juba and Khartoum told me that they can only play a serious role in Abuja after having reached a common position with the NCP. I am afraid that this will take months. From their rebel leaders in Abuja are not fully representative for their movements either. They seem to lose control over their commanders in the field. Some continue betting on two horses: fighting and talking. Others get involved in the power struggle in Chad, receiving weapons from abroad and starting new alliances.
Negotiators in Abuja had understood that the mood in the Security Council is changing. There is serious talk about a transition from a force under the auspices of the AU to a UN force. This may give a boost to the negotiations in Abuja. This is one stray of hope.
There is a second reason for hope. After Abuja I went to Darfur again to speak with rebel commanders in the field. There I became a bit more optimistic. Many commanders and their troops want peace. They are losing confidence in those leaders whom they accuse of derailing the peace talks. They do not want to make a choice between Abdul Wahid and Minnie Minawi, but they also refuse to become a third party within the SLM. They are afraid that alliances with Chadian forces are a prelude to new hostilities. They also fear indiscriminate pre-emptive attacks by the Sudanese army, which will force them to fight again. They fear that this would be the end of Abuja. If forces within the rebel movements, active on the ground, would be able to get this message heard, the peace talks might become successful, in the end.
SLM fighters, belonging to the faction led by Minni Minawi, at a parade in Haskenita, Darfur.
Photo: Marianne Nolte (c)