Weblog nr 2
November 13, 2005
The humanitarian situation in Darfur has improved. Last year, in 2004, the child malnutrition rate was 22%. Amongst these children 4% were severely undernourished. These percentages went down to 12%, respectively 1.4% this year.
The figures with regard to mortality show the same tendency. In the period concerned the mortality rate went down from 0.7% to 0.5% and child mortality from 1% to 0.7%.
Photo: Paula Souverijn-Eisenberg (c)
The tendency is remarkable. I am always quite sceptic when I see figures concerning the humanitarian situation or the impact of humanitarian assistance. The figures are often biased towards the interest of the agency producing them. Governments often present a rosy picture, in order not to be held accountable. Humanitarians are inclined to present a gloomy picture, in order to sustain their appeal for more assistance. However, the figures mentioned above are the result of a joint study by various UN agencies and Government ministries, assisted by a renowned international institute, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the USA. So, the pattern portrayed by these figures is quite credible.
Does this mean that there is progress? Yes and no. Yes, because these rates are now below the so-called critical thresholds. It seems that the most severe threats are under control, next to violence of course. As a matter of fact, the mortality and malnutrition rates ere even below those before the outbreak of the war in Darfur.
However, there is no reason for complacency whatsoever. All this is the result of large scale humanitarian assistance and nothing else. In the last one and a half year the international community has brought massive relief aid to the people of Darfur. The United Nations and the non-governmental agencies brought huge resources - money, food, transportation and, last but least, aid workers - to the country. As a matter of fact, in terms of both human and financial resources, aid to Darfur and aid to South Sudan presently are the two largest United Nations humanitarian operations in the world. This is bound to have an impact. As soon as the inflow of resources would decline, the situation would worsen again. I am afraid that this will happen. The major donor countries have already made clear that next year the aid budget for Darfur will be curtailed.
Photo: Paula Souverijn-Eisenberg (c)
If peace would be established, the need for humanitarian assistance would gradually make place for reconstruction and development assistance. In that case we would be able to live with less relief aid. We hope that a peace agreement will be reached around the end of this year. However, this is far from certain. Moreover, both with and without a peace agreement insecurity will prevail. There are many warlords, bandits and militia who do not feel bound by an agreement. Security, for both the people of Darfur as well as for the humanitarian workers will improve only gradually. Many roads are very unsafe and will remain so. Attacks are taking place daily. Truckers are afraid to drive in Darfur. The African Union troops are still not large and strong enough to protect all convoys. Many people can only be reached by air. Malnutrition and mortality will undoubtedly increase, even if food aid would remain available, when this aid can not be brought to the people.
So, the figures are better, but the perspective is gloomy. There is less malnutrition, but not more food security. For an improvement in the food security situation two conditions must be met. First: more local food production. The rains this year were better than last year. That means that the crops were higher. But a sustainable increase requires more than that. Farmers need to return to the field. Access to land and water must be guaranteed. However, the refugees and displaced people are afraid to go back to their villages because attacks continue. Also last month militia on horseback and camel killed dozens of people and destroyed their houses. An international force will have to guarantee security of the areas of origin of the refugees and displaced people before a sustained increase in agricultural production can be expected. That requires reconciliation and a fair system to solve land disputes. All this is needed to enhance food security.
Second: food security requires an adequate income of those people who do not produce food themselves, but buy it on the market. According to the same study mentioned above last year nearly half of all resident households in Darfur managed to have acceptable food consumption from their own means. This year only 20% was able to do so. Darfur has impoverished at an alarming scale.
All this underlines the urgency of a solution. Please spread the message. More and more we get the impression that such a sense of urgency is lacking everywhere, in Khartoum, in Darfur and also in the capitals of the Western world. There is no room for complacency. On the contrary. While this year has shown remarkable improvements, without a peace agreement being reached soon, we may head towards a return to the catastophy of 2003 and 2004.
The figures with regard to mortality show the same tendency. In the period concerned the mortality rate went down from 0.7% to 0.5% and child mortality from 1% to 0.7%.
Children at a way station (a 'rest stop' and assembly area) outside of Juba, waiting for the river barges to leave for Bor
Photo: Paula Souverijn-Eisenberg (c)
The tendency is remarkable. I am always quite sceptic when I see figures concerning the humanitarian situation or the impact of humanitarian assistance. The figures are often biased towards the interest of the agency producing them. Governments often present a rosy picture, in order not to be held accountable. Humanitarians are inclined to present a gloomy picture, in order to sustain their appeal for more assistance. However, the figures mentioned above are the result of a joint study by various UN agencies and Government ministries, assisted by a renowned international institute, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the USA. So, the pattern portrayed by these figures is quite credible.
Does this mean that there is progress? Yes and no. Yes, because these rates are now below the so-called critical thresholds. It seems that the most severe threats are under control, next to violence of course. As a matter of fact, the mortality and malnutrition rates ere even below those before the outbreak of the war in Darfur.
However, there is no reason for complacency whatsoever. All this is the result of large scale humanitarian assistance and nothing else. In the last one and a half year the international community has brought massive relief aid to the people of Darfur. The United Nations and the non-governmental agencies brought huge resources - money, food, transportation and, last but least, aid workers - to the country. As a matter of fact, in terms of both human and financial resources, aid to Darfur and aid to South Sudan presently are the two largest United Nations humanitarian operations in the world. This is bound to have an impact. As soon as the inflow of resources would decline, the situation would worsen again. I am afraid that this will happen. The major donor countries have already made clear that next year the aid budget for Darfur will be curtailed.
WFP truck in Mershing, South Darfur
Photo: Paula Souverijn-Eisenberg (c)
If peace would be established, the need for humanitarian assistance would gradually make place for reconstruction and development assistance. In that case we would be able to live with less relief aid. We hope that a peace agreement will be reached around the end of this year. However, this is far from certain. Moreover, both with and without a peace agreement insecurity will prevail. There are many warlords, bandits and militia who do not feel bound by an agreement. Security, for both the people of Darfur as well as for the humanitarian workers will improve only gradually. Many roads are very unsafe and will remain so. Attacks are taking place daily. Truckers are afraid to drive in Darfur. The African Union troops are still not large and strong enough to protect all convoys. Many people can only be reached by air. Malnutrition and mortality will undoubtedly increase, even if food aid would remain available, when this aid can not be brought to the people.
So, the figures are better, but the perspective is gloomy. There is less malnutrition, but not more food security. For an improvement in the food security situation two conditions must be met. First: more local food production. The rains this year were better than last year. That means that the crops were higher. But a sustainable increase requires more than that. Farmers need to return to the field. Access to land and water must be guaranteed. However, the refugees and displaced people are afraid to go back to their villages because attacks continue. Also last month militia on horseback and camel killed dozens of people and destroyed their houses. An international force will have to guarantee security of the areas of origin of the refugees and displaced people before a sustained increase in agricultural production can be expected. That requires reconciliation and a fair system to solve land disputes. All this is needed to enhance food security.
Second: food security requires an adequate income of those people who do not produce food themselves, but buy it on the market. According to the same study mentioned above last year nearly half of all resident households in Darfur managed to have acceptable food consumption from their own means. This year only 20% was able to do so. Darfur has impoverished at an alarming scale.
All this underlines the urgency of a solution. Please spread the message. More and more we get the impression that such a sense of urgency is lacking everywhere, in Khartoum, in Darfur and also in the capitals of the Western world. There is no room for complacency. On the contrary. While this year has shown remarkable improvements, without a peace agreement being reached soon, we may head towards a return to the catastophy of 2003 and 2004.